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Trump has gone which for the moment means US stocks are reasonably happy…….

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I’ve had many queries as to when I will be getting the “Naked money” podcasts up and running again. A series where I teach a novice trader how to do it and every week we pick a share. 

Glad to report the 6k we invested together is now over 9k, a 50pc return over 5 months.

Soon I hope as soon as the osteopath fixes the slipped discs and can sit for more than 15mins. If you didn’t catch it search for naked money whereever you get podcasts from.

My more entertainment based podcast with fun and music as well as lots of shares chat “The naked trader radio show” I hope to get going again soon.

If you never caught that google it, there are four shows, the latest “the naked trader radio show podcast 4” Trump has gone which for the moment means US stocks are reasonably happy and where the US goes we often follow.

Remember last time I pointed out several anecdotal clues that the market might be riding its luck- we may have more to go but I’d be surprised if we didn’t seea bit of a meltdown at some point.

The latest clue we might be toppy is the number of new issues about to hit the market with what looks like bonkers valuations. 

None more so that the silly valuation of Moonpig. I shall have a rant about this and my reasons for it a bit later.In the meantime I am snapping up anything that looks of value.

 I was surprised to see when I accessed my real accounts for delegates at the last seminar that in one ofmmy bigger isas I am now fully invested. £1.7 million in that one right now -and with the other isas maxxed up, spreadbetting for anything new.

I know delegates at the zoom events are surprised at how much I have in the SB accounts but if you maxx out your isas it is the best way to invest tax free.

I bought some RBG Holdings (LON:RBGP).  Let me emphasise the lawyers group and not the pubs one. Codes are very similar!

A risky idea as it is due to report any day and the shares have been sitting unhappily down for some time after a lacklustre report last time,But, with a very low PE and a small debt I wonder if downside is now in the price? I was tempted in as the shares seemingly were rising off quite a firm bottom (ooooh matron and all).

It didn’t like lockdown and it mentioned the “impact” of that on one of its businesses. Still. The market looks ahead and given it is near lows a steady as she goes statement could see the shares lift. I just hope the buyers know something rather than me who knows nothing. So risky but on this low rating could be rewarding. If there is a profit warning then you can have a good laugh at my expense. It is quite liquid for a small cap but given the risk more of a toe in for me.

As usual the online seminars I am doing always bring up new shares to my attention, one of the reasons I love doing them. btw those of you I had to turn away from the last one as it was full can now book Feb 3rd where we will be hunting for golden shares. See above or below for more details, it is 75% full now so don’t leave it till Feb 2nd if you fancy an online day with me.

Stock Spirits (LON:STCK) came up on a screen at the seminar and indeed four delegates held it already.

It seems fair to assume that lockdown is causing people to drink more at home. Fed up with lockdown? Then why not get pissed? It has a lot of online sales in countries like Poland where sales have rocketed. Downside? With lockdown it has lost sales to pubs and the like. 

STCK supplies spirits and liquers to central Europe (hic, pass the brandy would you vicar?) and it is doingso well it is paying a special dividend. Combined with the normal div that is 17p going ex dividend on the 28th. Nice I will have that.

Net debt has rocketed down and once lockdowns are over it should have a decent 2021 so considering a long-term isa tuckaway with lovely dividends.

Please note obviously it will start the day 17p down on the 28th as it goes ex. I bought some more Begbies Traynor (BEG) A share I’ve had for a while which is doing ok.

It ought to be as an insolvency practitioner. 2021 should be set up to give this company a lot of work. It is acquiring others to grow and the market liked an acquisition this week of CVR Global LLP  It paid just over £20m from funds and it looks a good fit. 

You can see how BEG should continue to grow and prosper especially as we comeout of lockdown. It is expected to make a small profit in its current tax year but for 2021 profits are expected to leap and if that proves true it could look cheap.

My holding in Vectura (LON:VEC) continues to rise and I averaged up with more and it is becoming quite a large holding.

In a bullish statement last week it expected to top expectation and also has had one of its drugs approved. 

It has tons of cash and concluded 18 deals in 2020. Its specialisation on respiratory drugs looks timely – fair value could easily be 170p plus.

888 continues to look like a must have with bid target written all over it and loaded up with more.  It had a record December and so again raised forecasts.

Also this week it has extended and signed a multi year poker partnership with Caesar’s Palace partnership. I’d be really surprised if 888 didn’t get taken out in 2021. I’m hoping for 400p.

I an waiting to buy more IG group (LON:IGG) on the back of its incredible acquisition of Tastytrade in the US for a billion dollar.

This shows major ambition from IG – shares initially fell as there will be more shares floating about.

However this is good news in my opinion and could see IG shares hit the 1000p level soonish.

This statement shows how serious IG is in growing its business. So I am waiting for it to bottom out and will be buying more.

I’ve sold the last of the Codemasters for the website for a profit of £7,525. Got a small amount left in personal accounts and as those who came to the zoom seminar saw my real profit is well over £150,000.

I’m looking forwards to picking up nearly £15,000 in the special dividend from I Energiser in early Feb. Capital growth and great dividends make this share the perfect isa tuckaway. It’s been slightly weak since it went ex div and I am waiting to buy more.

Elsewhere SUMO shares are on the move after a statement. Same with recent  buy Gamesys. Flying up is Thinksmart where I have more than doubled and looking at today’s action more to come! Avon Rubber is starting a rise after a dip due to contract delays. Any announcement that delays have turned to signings could see them heading back up smartish. There are lots of new issues coming out, some good some bad. I try and evaluate each one on a sensible valuation basis.

So … to Moonpig.

My guess is loads will buy this. Why? Cos it’s Moonpig ! With the great ads!

This is no reason to buy. People mailed me they had bought the AA. Why I asked.”Cos it’s the AA”!

I shorted the AA and made a packet. It was a rubbish new issue – debts of more than £2 BILLION! It went from 400p to 35p,

Here are the red flags surrounding Moonpig. It started by plugging its “Ebita” rather than real profit. Always a red flag. If a company starts plugging ebita first be cautious!!

Ebita figure is always a lot higher than the real profit.

Ebita £44m. Real profit according to the FT £18,4m. Now what about debt? Hmm. Not mentioned apart from they hope it will be 2x ebita. Ok then £88m.

Upside? They will have done very well during the lockdowns. And profits will be higher.The question is how much would you value it at? Well, I was thinking ok £18.4m profit but then there is the debt and poss good growth for lockdown. But that may not be repeated once the shops open again. 

I was thinking, ok let’s say they did so well profits will be £30m. How’s about ten times that then, about £300 million then, 

But ok, let’s take the ebita fig, Let’s all it 10x that and add some say £500 million then. Given the debt that must be top whack?

The actual valuation? They are saying £1.2 billion.

Yes folks. One point two billion.

Now would you pay more than a billion for a company with that profit and that debt?

Of course not. I suspect shareholders can see the next statement will show improved profit but they want to get out because after lockdown not so much.

I also suspect the share price will boom upwards in the days following the float.

And that is when I am going to short it ! If the valuation gets to £1.bln I am going for a giant short.

All the above is based on figures I got from the FT and the Times so if I check them and they aren’t right or the real profits look to be way higher or the debt a lot

lower, I reserve the right to change my mind! Also I could be talking crap and I am not the market, dyor!

  

SEMINARS

Beginner/improver Zoom seminar Feb 3rd

Live from my place to yours …

Everything covered -how to research and pick shares – how to avoid the bad ones, level 2, supply and demand, spreadbetting, the best websites to use and lots of trade hunting. All live on the day and you can rifle through my accounts live with all trades made from those. Plus psychology where to put stops and how to take losses and profits and whenFor details mail me at [email protected] with “feb seminar details” inthe subject line.

 

Follow up seminar – March 10th. Lots of trade hunting, research, supply and demand plus follow up, problem solving and tons more.You must have been to a previous seminar to qualify. Mail with”follow up interested” for details.I hope the next email will be Feb 10 – (have some appointments the 4th and 5th)

See you then with picks from the seminar and lots more.

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