SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 06 11 20
Gold and copper prices edge higher as Biden edges towards Presidency
Beowulf Mining* (LON:BEM) – New funding aims to develop Kallak in Sweden, Aitolampi in Finland and Vadar in Kosovo
Empire Metals* (LON:EEE) – Further drill results at Eclipse Gold Project
Aura Energy* – (LON:AURA) – Annual and quarterly results and project updates
US dollar – set to weaken further now US election is largely done
Expect the US dollar to weaken due to the growing US deficit, ongoing Coronavirus disruption and likely new longer-run Stimulus.
Joe Biden is almost certainly the next US President, with the Supreme Court likely to reject Trump’s claims on electoral fraud.
The Senate equally split but Republicans will likely support sensible proposals from Biden and the Democrats.
The Senate is important as it can block proposals from Congress which is also split but US politicians tend to pull together when it comes to the economy .
The Senate votes are not finalised till early January but Biden will need a couple of months to gather his team and finesse new policy proposals .
COVID-19: Meantime, we are likely to see more individual states locking down over COVID-19 in the US now that the election is out of the way.
Coronavirus infections are spreading fast in the US and individual Governors will find it easier to take action and Lockdown under Biden.
Taxes: Biden is likely to raise taxes in the US relatively quickly while pushing for longer-term Stimulus to support the economy
Income taxes to go to 28% from 21% as a Biden policy with Corporation taxes expected to rise as well.
If Biden brings in Elizabeth Warren then things will get more radical and taxes could go higher
Construction machinery sales in North America are down 11% YTD yoy to ~165,000 units in marked contrast to China where machinery sales have risen by 30% YTD yoy to ~270,000 units.
Chinese Stimulus is, unsurprisingly, faster and more effective and may also highlight better control of the Coronavirus within Chinese provinces.
China’s recovery is particularly impressive given widespread flooding along much of the 6,300km Yangtze river and its tributaries. A significant proportion of the harvest has been wiped out causing China to buy substantial food stocks overseas.
China is well drilled in tackling the impact of Viruses from SARS etc…and has accelerated plans allowing over 4,000 construction projects to start with investment of >Rmb3tn (~US$460bn).
China’s steel producers are working flat out with China now importing record tonnages of iron ore and related alloys such as vanadium for strengthening structural steel.
Long-term Treasury yields have pulled back on fears that it may become harder for the Democrats to push stimulus policies through the Senate. While we respect financial markets we feel the Senate will not stop on Stimulus for economic recovery.
Metals: We see longer term weakness in the US with a Biden presidency driven by longer stimulus and the impact of higher US taxes.
A weaker US dollar is good for higher dollar-denominated prices while we also expect China to continue to strengthen the Renminbi and undermine the dollar as it seeks to persuade central banks and traders to use Renminbi as their reserve and functional currency.
US Election, China growth policies Solgold*, Mkango*, Rainbow Rare Earths*: https://youtu.be/YKk5-kVpVGE
EV revolution, gold and other ideas (Interactive Investor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ja0IdjszfCc
Metals Markets: Are they totally dependent on stimulus? (IG TV): https://youtu.be/TOiSwRpgfKM
Tesla Battery Day (IG TV): https://youtu.be/8su0PtyZLIM
SolGold* interview: : https://youtu.be/wK3SDPKADgM
Stock ideas (VOX, 05/11/20): https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/5fa521f4b9f74a03c9dfcbcc/?context=/listings/LON/EUA/multimedia/
(VOX, 21/10/20): https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/5f913cebb9f74a03c9dfcb4d/?context=/listings/LON/AAZ/multimedia/
(VOX, 14/10/20): https://audioboom.com/posts/7705483-john-meyer-talks-the-imf-anglo-asian-mining-orosur-mining-scotgold-resources
*SP Angel act as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos.
APEX survey rankings for SP Angel commodity forecasts: 2nd in Gold, 2nd in Copper, 2nd in Nickel, 1st in Tin, 5th in Iron ore.
Dow Jones Industrials +1.95% at 28,390
Nikkei 225 +0.91% at 24,325
HK Hang Seng +0.07% at 25,713
Shanghai Composite -0.24% at 3,312
US –Votes continue to be counted in such key states as Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia, with no clear winner at the moment.
Biden reduced Trump’s lead to just over 18,000 in Pennsylvania by early hours of Friday, while his deficit in Georgia, that has 16 electoral votes, dropped to around 450.
Those numbers are expected to continue to move in Biden’ favour with many of the outstanding ballots from areas that typically vote Democratic, including the cities of Philadelphia and Atlanta, Reuters reports.
Meanwhile, Biden saw his lead in Arizona falling to around 47,000, although, he was still ahead in Nevada by only 12,000 votes.
Joe Biden said there was “no doubt” he would win, while Donald Trump claimed the Democrats were trying to “steal” the election by counting illegal ballots.
Betting odds indicate Trump has less than 10% chance of securing a win.
The Fed left the policy unchanged while highlighting the considerable downside economic risks over an extended period and pledged to provide substantial support as necessary.
Rates kept at the 0.00-0.25% range and monthly bond purchases said to continue at $80bn (Treasuries) and $40bn (MBS).
US non farm payrolls are due later today with estimates for 593k in October, down from 661k in the previous month, and unemployment rate to come down to 7.6%, from 7.9%.
UK – Chancellor further extended the furlough programme to March next year as the nation increased COVID-related restrictions and high redundancies rate.
The announcement comes only days after Rishi Sunak extended the programme for an extra month on Saturday, just hours before it was due to end.
The BOE and The Treasury are investigating a possible leak of the size of the bond buying programme announced yesterday.
The central bank increased bond purchases by £150bn which was called by the Sun newspaper hours before the announcement citing unidentified people with knowledge of the policy meeting’s outcome.
Ethiopia – Heavy fighting is reported to have broken out in the northern region of Tigray with PM Abiy Ahmed announcing that national troops will need to get involved.
Mr Abiy said that Tigrayan troops had attacked a federal army base located in the region.
Previously, the region held its regional elections that saw the dominant Tigray People’s Liberation Front claiming 98% of votes, in defiance to the federal decision to postpone nationwide elections in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.
National elections were supposed to take place in earlier in August this year with parliamentarians voting to extend officials’ mandate that would have expired in early October.
As a result both sides now see each other as illegal, and federal lawmakers ruling that Abiy government should cut off contact with, and funding to, Tigray’s leadership, according to The Guardian.
While Tigray people make up only 5% of the Ethiopia’s 109m population, the TPLF was the ruling governing coalition member for decades before Abiy took office in 2018 with the region being wealthier and more influential than other, larger, regions.
US$1.1847/eur vs 1.1756/eur yesterday. Yen 103.42/$ vs 104.34/$. SAr 15.750/$ vs 15.835/$. $1.314/gbp vs $1.302/gbp. 0.727/aud vs 0.720/aud. CNY 6.618/$ vs 6.642/$.
Gold US$1,948/oz vs US$1,915/oz yesterday – Gold prices rise 2.4% Thursday on weak USD and Fed announcement
Gold prices soared on Thursday, setting bullion up for its best week since late July, as the US dollar continued to slide, with the dollar index currently down -1.39% for the week.
Bullion is set for a 3.5% weekly gain, as Biden edged closer to victory although analysts predict a Democrat President and Republican Senate which is likely to leave policymaking more uncertain in the US.
A Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday promised to keep its monetary policy status quo raising the prospect of further future stimulus programmes which have supported gold prices this year, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell describing the economic outlook as “highly uncertain”.
Gold ETFs 110.8moz vs US$110.7moz yesterday
Platinum US$901/oz vs US$885/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,400/oz vs US$2,336/oz yesterday
Silver US$25.39/oz vs US$24.43/oz yesterday
Copper US$ 6,905/t vs US$6,799/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 1,895/t vs US$1,891/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 15,480/t vs US$15,380/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,616/t vs US$2,579/t yesterday
Lead US$ 1,852/t vs US$1,834/t yesterday
Tin US$ 18,370/t vs US$18,180/t yesterday
Oil US$40.5/bbl vs US$41.0/bbl yesterday
Natural Gas US$2.940/mmbtu vs US$3.040/mmbtu yesterday
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$113.4/t vs US$113.0/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$588.8/t vs US$584.5/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$54.8/t vs US$53.9/t – Alliance pushes companies to cut out thermal coal through its Net Zero policies
Some of the world’s largest insurers and pension schemes are advising firms they invest in not to finance, insure, build, develop or plan new thermal coal plants or face sanctions, including possible divestment.
The Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, who manage a combined $5tn in assets, is making this warning after a recent pledge to set tougher carbon limits on their portfolios.
Developed economies need to cut down on almost all thermal coal by 2030, with a global phase out by 2040 in order to meet the terms of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Günther Thallinger, Member of the Board of Management, Investment Management, Environmental, Social and Governance at Allianz said that “if no long-term carbon footprint reduction can be produced the members will need to escalate and ultimately divest.”
The group has come up with some core principles which also say that no more thermal coal power plants should be financed, insured, build, developed or planned. They say that companies in their portfolios should have an understanding of this and any new thermal coal projects should be cancelled.
Furthermore, any unabated existing coal fired electricity generation which is not captured by carbon sequestration or storage should also be phased out. Taking part in activities which do not align with their principles and their net zero goals.
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$117.3/t vs US$119.3/t
Cobalt LME 3m US$32,835/t vs US$32,835/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$51,373/t vs US$50,894/t – Tanzania finalises permitting for country’s first REE mine
Tanzania is in the final stages of approving a permit to issue to Australian company Peak Resources, with the government seeking to increase mineral earnings by at least a third during the next three years (Bloomberg).
According to the Company, Peak’s Ngualla license in Tanzania is the highest grade undeveloped NdPr project in the world, and the mineral resource estimate for the project above a 1% REO cut-off is 214mt at 2.15% REO, for 4,620,000 tonnes of contained REO.
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$5,515/t vs US$5,496/t
Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$27.0/kg vs US$27.2/kg
Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$5.4/kg vs US$5.3/kg
Tungsten APT European US$220-225/mtu vs US$220-225/mtu
Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$440/t vs US$440/t
Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,300/t vs US$2,275/t
Iberdrola to invest €75bn to capitalise on energy transition
Iberdrola pledges €75bn to double its renewable energy capacity and help it capitalise on a global shift away from fossil fuels.
Ignacio Galán, Iberdrola chairman, said that most of the money wold be spent on organic growth instead of acquisition. He claims that their renewables capacity will rise from 32 gigawatts last year to 60GW in 2025, with 26GW of solar and14GW of hydro. The rest will be offshore wind.
The company expect to increase their net profit to €5bn in 2025, from €3.4bn last year as a result of this growth.
Iberdrola and other utilities wish to benefit from the EU’s plans to build out a zero-carbon economy over the next ten years. However, they face competition from major oil companies such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell. Mr Galán has not ruled out partnerships with these oil majors who are looking to expand in clean energy.
Bentley Motors to go all-electric by 2030
Bentley have announced its intensions to be end-to-end carbon neutral by 2030, with the transition beginning with plug-in hybrids- with two coming next year (Electrek).
The carmaker then intends to be PHEV or BEV by 2026 before switching its entire model range to battery electric vehicles by 2030.
Bentley have named their strategy its “Beyond100 strategy”, described as”Bentley will reinvent every aspect of its business to become an end-to-end carbon neutral organisation as it embarks on its second century. The target is driven by a transformation programme across Bentley’s entire operations and products.”
Beowulf Mining* (LON:BEM) 4.75p, Mkt cap £28.6m – New funding aims to develop Kallak in Sweden, Aitolampi in Finland and Vadar in Kosovo
(Beowulf holds 46.1% of Vadar. Beowulf also holds 100% Kallak iron ore in Sweden, 100% of Aitolampi graphite in Finland and 40% of the Mitrovica and Viti projects in Kosovo)
Beowulf report the launch of a £7.3m (SEK83m) partially secured open offer in Sweden and the UK..
The new shares are being offered at 3.16p
SEK56.7m (£4.98m) worth of new shares are also being offered to existing holders of Swedish Depository Receipts at SEK0.370/s (3.25p/s today).
There are 11.39 SEK per pound sterling today.
Beowulf has received underwriting commitments from a number of Nordic investors for up to 80% of the SDR Rights Issue.
Beowulf estimate the net proceeds from the raising will be around £6m with the funds used to advance their assets in Sweden, Finland and Kosovo.
Sweden (Kallak North): Beowulf will continue to press the Swedish government for a decision on the mining license for the Kallak iron ore project.
LKAB, Sweden’s pre-eminent state-owned mining company is likely to need to diversify its iron ore mine as the Kiruna mine resource depletes. A re-estimation of the Kiruna shows the mine has less reserves and resources than previously estimated. Recent earth tremors and instability at the mine suggest to us that LKAB really should develop further resources outside Kiruna.
Finland (Aitolampi): Beowulf’s Fennoscandian subsidiary is developing a Scoping Study at Aitolampi while working up further graphite resources in the region. The team plan to mine a bulk sample at Aitolampi and to build a pilot plant to for the production of spherical graphite for Li-ion batteries and high-value graphite products.
Talga Resources recently entered into a LoI with LKAB and Mitsui over the development of their graphite project in Sweden, highlighting new-found interest in the development of European battery materials and mining in Sweden.
Kosovo (Vadar): Beowulf is funding work to better define a number of promising copper, gold and polymetallic targets in Kosovo. The region is known for historic mining indicating that much remains to be discovered in the area.
Recent work tie in geophysical anomalies seen in IP and resistivity surveys with soil geochemistry and historical data to give a good idea as to the scale of these targets. The Madjan Peak, Mitrovica and Viti targets look particularly promising.
Sampling at Maidan Peak show >1g/t gold in 42 out of 96 samples with grades of 7.2 g/t; 4.6 g/t; 2.8 g/t; 2.0 g/t; 1.5 g/t; 1.3 g/t; 1.3 g/t; and 1.1 g/t.
Conclusion: We believe the Swedish institutional investors are backing Beowulf in their underwriting of funding for the Kallak North iron ore project in Sweden. While we see Kallak North as a great project we also see good potential value in the development of the Aitolampi graphite project in Finland and in the gold and copper prospects in Kosovo.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Minerals
Empire Metals* (LON:EEE) 5p, Mkt cap £11m – Further drill results at Eclipse Gold Project
EmpireMetals have announced further RC drilling results at the Eclipse Gold Project, located 55km north-east of Kalgoorlie.
To date a total of 2,178m have been drilled of a total planned 44-hole, 2,600m programme with the Company providing regular updates throughout October when the programme commenced.
Drilling to date has focused on the area to the immediate north and south of the Eclipse shaft within the license, which historically produced 956 tonnes @ 24.6 g/t Au for 754.25 oz Au.
Significant results received include:
Drillhole ECRC20_009: 3m @ 21.96 g/t Au from 45m (including 1m @ 56.9 g/t Au) – 30m along strike of existing historical workings and represents a previously unidentified extension to the main high-grade lode.
Drillhole ECRC20_037: 8m @ 3.2 g/t Au from 133m (including 3m @ 4.45 g/t Au) – the deepest drill hole drilled to date, indicating the mineralised structure remains open at depth and along strike.
Drillhole ECRC20_039: 14m @ 2.57 g/t Au from 94m (including 4m @ 4.98 g/t Au) – announced on the 28th of October.
Drillhole ECRC20_005: 8m @ 2.14 g/t Au from 42m
The results provide confirmation of extensions to previously defined mineralisation along strike from the old workings and at depth, with further drilling to provide insight into grade-thickness contours and the extent of mineralisation.
Empire is also conducting downhole surveys including optical televiewer surveys which provide a digital image of the drillhole walls that can be used in subsequent geological interpretations, and has also commenced drilling at its second target, Houdini, which is approximately 1.2km north-west of the Eclipse Target.
Conclusion: Active drilling at the Eclipse project confirms mineralisation at depth and along strike from historic workings. Meanwhile, we look forward to Empire updating the market with results from its second target, Houdini, in due course.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker for Empire Metals
Aura Energy* – (LON:AURA) 0.3p, Mkt Cap £7.4m – Annual and quarterly results and project updates
In a release of its annual accounts for the year to 30th June 2020 yesterday, Aura Energy confirmed a net after-tax loss of A$5.88 (2019 loss – A$2.99m) which adjusts the previously disclosed preliminary loss of A$3.22m announced on 30th September though a negative adjustment of A$2.62m arising from an impairment of the Mauritanian uranium assets as well as a smaller, A$36,163 change in the share-based payments charge following a review of the probability of the “milestone award criteria”.
The company reports a 30th June 2020 cash balance of A$0.23m.
Describing an “extraordinary difficult year” impacted by operational constraints arising from Covid19 containment measures and a succession of three “shareholder requisitions for shareholder meetings and one Constitution requisition for a shareholders meeting by a director”, Executive Chairman, PD Reeve, highlighted the completion of, in July 2019, the feasibility study for the Tiris uranium project in Mauritania and later, in October 2019 of the scoping study for the Haggan vanadium project in Sweden.
Mr. Reeve points out that “The continued stagnant uranium price undermined the Tiris project feasibility study and the capacity of the Company to bring online a low capital, low operating cost … [project] … in Mauritania”.
Recapping the principal conclusions of the feasibility study, the report describes a US$63m project producing a total of 12.35m lbs of U3O8 over a 15 years mine life at an average all-in-sustaining cost of US$29.81/lb and generating a pre-tax NPV8% of US$114m at a uranium price of US$60/lb.
The company explains that “The full outcome of the Haggan project scoping study has been impacted negatively by the application of INFO 214 … by ASIC which sets out minimum market capitalisation to capital cost of an entity which must be satisfied before a full scoping study can be issued to the market. This interpretation by ASIC of a requirement to consider financing of a project at a scoping study phase is at odds with industry practice which regards scoping studies as a decision required by a project sponsor to either continue to invest or abandon a mining project”.
Work completed during the year has delivered a new global mineral resources estimate for the Haggan project “of 2 billion tonnes at an average grade of 0.3% V2O5 … at a 0.2% V2O5 cut-off, which includes 320 million lbs V2O5 at 0.35% V2O5 as Indicated Resource, and 13.0 billion lbs at 0.3% V2O5 as Inferred Resource.”
The company adds that “Importantly, the infill drilling and modelling work has confirmed 42 million tonnes at 0.35% V2O5 at 0.2% V2O5 cut-off as Indicated Resource in a coherent near-surface zone.”
In a transaction which effectively values Aura Energy’s Mauritanian gold exploration assets at C$9m, they are to be vended into a TSX-V company, Archean Gold, scheduled to list by the end of January 2021.
In a separate announcement issued this morning, Aura Energy reports Q1 results for the three months to 30th Septemberand confirms that “The main activity during the quarter revolved around a corporate transaction for the gold assets to list these assets in Toronto”.
The company also confirms continuing discussions with US utilities for long-term uranium sales contracts as well as its continuing compensation claim in Sweden.
Aura Energy also alludes to continuing “shareholder activism which is undermining equity raising to continue work programmes” as well as confirming that “During the quarter, Aura secured shareholder support which defeated all the resolutions put to a s.249D general meeting of shareholders brought by ASEAN Deep Value Fund to remove directors and place its own nominees on the board of directors”.
*SP Angel are Nomad and broker to Aura Energy
John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486
Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – [email protected] – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver
BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore
Bloomberg OTC Composite
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Antimony