SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 02 11 20
Metals prices pull back on European Lockdowns in Risk Off trade
US Election tomorrow night may cause further volatility
Amur Minerals* (LON:AMC) – Loading of first iron ore for shipment at the Roper Bar Project
Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) – BUY, 200p – Updated resources and reserves extend life of mine at Gedabek
Arkle Resources* (LON:ARK) – Identification of additional gold targets in Donegal
Beowulf Mining* (LON:BEM) – Drone survey completed at Mitrovica
Castillo Copper (LON:CCZ) – Copper soil anomalies extended at Mkushi
KEFI Gold and Copper (LON:KEFI) – Q4 drilling launched at Hawiah with first hole extending Camp Lode mineralisation from 300m to 440m down dip
Savannah Resources* (LON:SAV) – Completion of Oman divestment
Yamana Gold (LON:AUY) – C$152m acquisition of Wasamac project in Quebec
APEX survey rankings for SP Angel commodity forecasts: 2nd in Gold, 2nd in Copper, 2nd in Nickel, 1st in Tin, 5th in Iron ore
Dow Jones Industrials -0.59% at 26,502
Nikkei 225 +1.39% at 23,295
HK Hang Seng +1.46% at 24,460
Shanghai Composite +0.02% at 3,225
China – fixes FOREX reference rate at 6.7050 per US dollar vs the previous fix of 6.7232 and previous close of 6.6932
The new fix strengthens the currency and may be part of an ongoing strategy to strengthen the Renminbi.
A stronger Renminbi is helpful for China while it buys in food products to replace crops lost in the Yangtze flooding.
Strengthening of the Renminbi may also be part of a longer term strategy to displace the US dollar as the World’s global reserve currency.
China has already persuaded Iran to adopt the Renminbi as a reserve currency within its central bank and we suspect China is working behind the scenes to persuade other nations to follow.
The unfolding emerging market debt crisis accelerated by economic disruption caused by the Coronavirus may be used to persuade other central banks to adopt the Renminbi as part of China’s debt forgiveness.
Australia – China expected to ban imports of Australian copper and sugar
We believe the move is in retaliation over Huawei.
Reports indicate that China has already banned imports of Australian lobster, timber and barley
We are also trying to confirm that China has also banned imports of Australian coal
The development of a trade war with China is a major issue for Australia and may give China a template to work from as it flexes its economic muscle and dominant position in the resources industry.
US – Coronavirus relief bill delayed as Congress adjourns
Democrats are keen for relief to continue for longer to avoid mistake of ending relief too early as seen in 2009
“You don’t take your foot off the gas in the middle of an economic recovery” according to Senator Ron Wyden
Fed Lowers Minimum Loan Size For 3 Main Street Lending Program Facilities To $100K From $250K
US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q4: 3.24% (prev 3.46%)
University Of Michigan October Consumer Sentiment Final Report – SCA.
US University of Michigan inflation 1-yr index 2.6% for October vs 2.7%. 5-10 yr inflation 2.4% for October – nochange
UK – Lockdown could extend beyond 2nd December
Pandemic said to be spreading faster than government’s worst case scenario.
COVID-19 still remains a long way from the top of the list of causes of death in the UK with more rapid average recovery rates expected for patients.
PMI Manufacturing 53.7 in October vs 53.3 in September
Turkey suffers 7.0 earthquake and mini tsunami in coastal areas
More than 20 buildings collapsed in Izmir by the earthquake centered 11 miles north of the island of Samos
The devastation was not helped by lax building regulations and likely endemic corruption within the building system.
Eurozone – Markit manufacturing PMI 54.8 for October vs 54.4 previously
Germany – Markit manufacturing PMI 58.2 October vs 58.0 previously
South Africa – Absa manufacturing PMI 60.9 for October vs 58.3 previously
Ranair – H1 Interim trading update
Passenger numbers fell to 17m from 76m
H1 loss €197m
Mali -Transitional governments to review mining contracts signed by previous administrations
Mali is to review mining conventions by previous administrations, as the Country’s Auditor General believes that some clauses in mining contracts do not guarantee the protection of the interest of the state.
US$1.1628/eur vs 1.1682/eur last week. Yen 104.92/$ vs 104.32/$. SAr 16.306/$ vs 16.315/$. $1.287/gbp vs $1.293/gbp. 0.700/aud vs 0.703/aud. CNY 6.700/$ vs 6.697/$.
Gold US$1,882/oz vs US$1,874/oz last week
Gold ETFs 110.8moz vs US$110.9moz last week
Platinum US$851/oz vs US$853/oz last week
Palladium US$2,241/oz vs US$2,224/oz last week
Silver US$23.82/oz vs US$23.37/oz last week
Copper US$ 6,707/t vs US$6,731/t last week – Shanghai copper prices hit one-month low on rising global Covid-19 cases
Shanghai copper prices hit their lowest in more than a month, while prices in London hit a two-week low as caution grew amid rising Covid-19 cases and uncertainty ahead of the US election.
Cases continued to climb in the US on Sunday while England followed other European countries by introducing new measures to contain the virus.
The most traded December copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.9% to 50,720 yuan ($7,579)/t – its lowest since the 30th of September (Reuters).
Elsewhere in the copper space, the suspension of operations at Chile’s Candelaria copper mine copper mine continued on Friday with no signs of a resolution.
Aluminium US$ 1,846/t vs US$1,816/t last week
Nickel US$ 15,090/t vs US$15,250/t last week
Zinc US$ 2,539/t vs US$2,526/t last week
Lead US$ 1,796/t vs US$1,825/t last week
Tin US$ 17,800/t vs US$17,755/t last week
Oil US$36.5/bbl vs US$37.5/bbl last week
Natural Gas US$3.315/mmbtu vs US$3.317/mmbtu last week
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$113.1/t vs US$114.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$570.7/t vs US$571.0/t – China’s October steel PMI recovers to 45.8
The PMI for China’s steel industry came in at 45.8, up from 43.9 in the previous months, although still in the contraction zone of below 50, according to Mysteel.
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$54.0/t vs US$55.7/t
Coking coal futures Dalian Exchange US$122.7/t vs US$138.5/t
Cobalt LME 3m US$32,835/t vs US$33,305/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$49,775/t vs US$49,347/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$5,373/t vs US$5,375/t
Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$28./kg vs US$28./kg
Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$5.3/kg vs US$5.3/kg
Tungsten APT European US$220-225/mtu vs US$220-225/mtu
Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$440/t vs US$440/t
Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,275/t vs US$2,275/t
Nidec to spend $1.9bn on European EV factory
Japanese motor manufacturer Nidec plans to spend about 200bn yen ($1.9bn) to build an EV motor factory in Serbia.
The company is reported to be in the final stages of talks with local authorities on plans for the factory and a research centre.
The new plans will reach an annual output between 200,000 units and 300,000 units by 2023, with Nidec also to start producing EV drive motors in France and Poland starting in 2022.
The company is boosting investment in Europe as a second front, following Chinese competitors such as CATL, who are currently constructing a $2bn plant in Erfurt, Germany (Nikkei Asia).
Russia will not cut fossil fuel production in near future
According to its energy minister, Russia does not intend to reduce its fossil fuel production in the near future despite global efforts to move towards low carbon energy.
Instead, in the next ten years, Russia will pair a 50% growth in gas production with plans to become a global leader in producing clean burning hydrogen and developing carbon capture technology.
It plans to increase gas production from its vast and cheap reserves to get to 1tn cubic meters a year by 2035. This is an increase from last year’s 680bn cubic meters.
Furthermore, Russia intends to increase the amount of gas it exports on super chilled tankers more than four times, from 29m tonnes a year to 120-140m tonnes, while continuing to send about 200bn cubic meters of gas to Europe via pipelines including the politically contentious Nord Stream Project.
Novak stated that he thinks that gas is an eco-friendly energy source, and they think that the share of natural gas in the global energy mix will continue to grow globally.
It is forecasted by energy economists that in Asia, gas demand will continue to increase as more countries draw a line on burning coal which emits about double the carbon dioxide of gas. However, in Europe it is estimated that gas demand will fall by 8% below 2019 levels in the next ten years.
Novak said that Russia will also become a global player in the hydrogen economy, by creating and distributing it. He states that they can produce hydrogen by electrolysis, or by pyrolysis. At the same time, they are manufacturing technology which can capture carbon emissions produced during hydrogen production to create “green” gas.
Hydrogen production would protect Russia’s fossil fuel economy while helping to reduce emissions globally. However, environmental groups have said their plans are not sufficient. The Paris Agreement set targets based on 1990 emissions levels. In 1990 Russia had the highest emissions globally and since then they have halved these. Therefore, it would be easy for them to have emissions between 25-30% lower than levels in 1990 by 2030.
AEX Gold Inc (LON:AEXG) – 43.99p, Mkt cap £74m – Development progress
AEX Gold reports significant progress in contracts for key infrastructure and long lead items.
Management have contracted the camp and ancillary systems.
The mine needs systems for fuel and drinking water as well as sewage treatment and disposal. Flushing loos are a luxury as any Artic explorer will attest!
Bidding is underway for underground development and processing equipment.
Financing: The team are considering proposals vendor and working capital financing.
Processing: Flotation is being considered as an alternative to the second stage leaching as it may also give recovery rates to 91-97%.
Flotation should speed process times, limit environmental risks, reduce cyanide consumption and could offer significant cost savings.
Gold sales: management are in discussions with a number of gold smelters/refiners .
Permitting: The Greenland government has accepted the EIA and SIA terms of reference with a public consultation due to start shortly.
We do not believe there are any significant legacy issues from the closure of the mine.
The Nalunaq gold mine closed in November 2013 under the ownership of Black Angel with decommissioning and restoration finished in August 2014..
Environmental monitoring of the site has continued with recommendations for future mining at the site.
A detailed review of the environmental work done is available from dce.au.dk and appears to conclude there is little significant lasting impact from the mining. The main consideration being related to dust suppression for vehicles driving on gravel roads and on slightly elevated concentrations of cadmium and copper found in seaweed in lichens which do not pose a risk to the biota.
Recent drilling on the Main Vein showed:
1.5m at 4.2 g/t, 1.35m at 6.6 g/t
Previous drilling showed:
0.25m at 120.4 g/t, 0.67m at 46.10 g/t, 0.50m at 19.75 g/t, 0.44m at 16.6 g/t.
Conclusion: We see the reopening of the Nalunaq gold mine as relatively straightforward. Management will be able to use recent environmental studies and data to design systems to reduce and mitigate any environmental issues. Using flotation in preference to heap leaching and dust suppression should further improve environmental management of the mine site. Reopening the mine should also help with cleaning up any legacy issues.
We see the reopening of the Nalunaq gold mine as a highly beneficial and profitable venture for
Amur Minerals* (LON:AMC) 1.9p, Mkt Cap £27m – Loading of first iron ore for shipment at the Roper Bar Project
The Company announced the loading of the first vessel at the Roper Bar Iron Ore project in the Northern Territories, Australia.
The first cargo will be for 58kt that is pre-sold and is expected to yield $3.6m in revenues.
Currently, low grade DMS iron ore stockpiles are being loaded with the processing of previously mined blocks having also started.
The Nathan River Resources team are targeting four to five further vessels by the end of the year with the transportation of existing stockpiles and processed blocks to port is now operating 24 hours a day.
Mining of new blocks is expected to start in due course.
Amur holds $4.7m worth of 14% three year convertible loan notes issued to NRR.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Amur Minerals
Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) 115p, Mkt Cap £132m – Updated resources and reserves extend life of mine at Gedabek
BUY – 200p
The Company released updated mineral resources and reserves for Gedabek and Gadir deposits.
Gedabek open pit mineral reserves (including stockpiles ~0.8mt or <10% of total ore) estimated at:
12.6mt at 0.70g/t gold and 0.21% copper for 284koz and 26kt contained gold and copper.
Gedabek open pit mineral resources include:
Measured and Indicated category for 27.8mt at 0.62g/t gold and 0.12% copper for 551koz and 33kt contained gold and copper.
Inferred category for 13.0mt at 0.44g/t gold and 0.06% copper for 184koz and 8kt contained gold and copper.
Copper domain (in addition to the above)
Measured and Indicated category for 4.3mt at 0.39% copper for 17kt contained copper.
Inferred category for 2.9mt at 0.40% copper for 11kt contained copper.
Gadir underground mineral reserves include:
0.7mt at 2.28g/t for 49koz.
Gadir underground mineral resources estimated at:
Measured and Indicated category for 3.0mt at 2.19g/t for 211koz contained gold;
Inferred category for 1.6mt at 1.10g/t for 59koz contained gold.
Ugur open pit mine is nearing depletion with mining consultants estimating 0.3mt at 0.8g/t for ~7koz of mineable material remaining; although, exploration works in the vicinity of the deposit continue with preliminary results announced previously showing high grade copper mineralisation intersections at depth.
Revised mine plan point to an eight year mine life at Gedabek assuming open pit operations at Gedabek and underground mining at Gadir.
Although, the team is in the process of establishing underground infrastructure to explore for and develop higher grade underground mineralisation extensions of the Gedabek orebody.
Underground tunnel driven from the south below the Gedabek open pit will soon link up with tunnel developed from the Gadir decline at the northern end of Gedabek allowing the Company to commence underground mining as well as exploration of the deeper extensions of mineralisation.
A trade off study is now being carried out comparing open pit versus underground development of part of the existing Gedabek open pit mineral resources and reserves.
Additionally, exploration works are ongoing at five priority targets at the Gedabek Contract Area that may be potentially fast tracked into production further extending the life of mine.
Conclusion: Update mineral resources and reserves extended life of mine at Gedabek to eight years. The team also highlights upside potential to the current estimate from underground extensions at the known deposits as well as regional targets with ongoing exploration delivering “mineable grades” allowing the Company to potentially fast track identified targets into production leveraging off existing infrastructure.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining
Arkle Resources* (LON:ARK) 1.23p, mkt cap £3.2m – Identification of additional gold targets in Donegal
Arkle Resources reports that additional soil sampling at its Inishowen project in Donegal has identified anomalous geochemical signatures similar to those that define its existing Meeneragh prospect.
The company explains that it expects to start a programme of drilling and trenching to follow up the geochemical work shortly.
Arkle Resources also reports that it has started trenching work at ten sites, identified by anomalous soil geochemical results for gold on its Mine River prospect on the Wicklow / Wexford border in south-east Ireland.
Conclusion: Early stage geochemical exploration has identified additional gold targets at Inishowen which are to be followed up with trenching and drilling in the near future while similar early stage geochemical exploration is being followed up with trenching at the Mine River prospect in southeast Ireland. We await the results from both projects with interest.
*SP Angel are Nomad and broker to Arkle Resources
Beowulf Mining* (LON:BEM) 5.5p, Mkt Cap £33.1m – Drone survey completed at Mitrovica
Beowulf has completed a drone magnetic survey over Vadar Mineral’s Mitrovica licenses in northern Kosovo, using a semi-automated drone system developed by Vadar and technical partners.
The survey entails 845-line kilometres of production flying, with all blocks flown at a height above ground of 35m unless specific obstacles required higher elevation. A line spacing of 40m was employed to provide the necessary ultra-high-resolution dataset.
The Vardar drone system utilises a Geometric’s MagArrow underslung on a Matrice 600 Pro drone. The MagArrow provides 1,000 Hz sampling of magnetic data with onboard GPS and INS measurements.
Kurt Budge, CEO of Beowulf, commented: “The Vardar drone system is ‘state of the art’ and has been proven to be highly capable in covering Mitrovica’s extreme terrain.” ” It’s excellent to see the picture building at Wolf Mountain, that ties in with previous work and points the way to what we hope are high-grade lead-zinc feeder structures.”
Further to the update, Beowulf also provide an update on Wolf Mountain, where exceptionally high IP chargeability anomalies occur at the expected stratigraphic position under the volcaniclastic contact and connect to mapped mineralised lead-zinc-silver gossans sampled at surface.
High quality high-resolution magnetics, combined with IP and resistivity data are being used as a remote sensing tool to provide information on underlying geology, alteration and structures which may control mineralisation. Analysis of which will determine targets for drilling in 2021.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining
Castillo Copper (LON:CCZ) 2.70p, Mkt Cap £27.3m – Copper soil anomalies extended at Mkushi
Castillo Copper reports that additional soil geochemical surveying at its Mkushi project in Zambia has “confirmed eight target areas with significant copper anomalism and strike lengths, ranging 1.5km – 4.2km, which extend known mineralisation compared with the January 2020 campaign”.
The company explains that these targets are in line with NE-SW trending structures which host the known Mushiwemba Copper Mine and that it will follow up the geochemical work with “an induced polarization (IP) survey … to identify geophysical anomalies and delineate potential targets”.
The company also confirms that it expects to provide information on the progress of its drilling at the Big One project around 150km north of Mt Isa in Australia in the near future.
Commenting on the results from Zambia, Director, Ged Hall, said that “These soil anomaly results from Mkushi are highly encouraging since they extend mineralisation along strike from a known operating copper mine”.
KEFI Gold and Copper (LON:KEFI) 1.8p, Mkt Cap £33m – Q4 drilling launched at Hawiah with first hole extending Camp Lode mineralisation from 300m to 440m down dip
The Company started Q4/20 drilling programme at the Hawiah VMS Project in Saudi Arabia with a view to complete 13,000m.
The team is aiming to expand and upgrade the maiden Mineral Resource from the current 19.3mt at 0.9% copper, 0.8% zinc, 0.6g/t gold and 10.3g/t (all Inferred).
The first hole completed this quarter targeted the higher grade down dip extension at the Camp Lode area.
Preliminary results show the HWD-070 hole intercepted 4.2m of VMS mineralisation at a vertical depth of 440m.
Visual inspection identified chalcopyrite present in the core with pyrite in a sheared and massive form.
This indicates an extension of the mineralisation previously intersected at 300m vertical depth that returned 8.7m at 1.55% copper, 1.0% zinc, 0.4g/t gold and 11.8g/t silver.
The Company holds a 34% interest in the local JV (G&M) where KEFI acts as an operating partner.
Conclusion: New drilling programme launched at the Hawiah VMS project to grow and upgrade the maiden resource with a view to complete a PFS during 2021. First hole in the Q4 programme intersected VMS mineralisation 140m below the previous deepest drill hole at the higher grade Camp Lode area implying a potential to add high grade tonnages to the current resource and improving project economics.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper
Savannah Resources* (LON:SAV) 2.3p, Mkt Cap £32.9m – Completion of Oman divestment
Savannah Resources has confirmed the completion of the previously announced sale of its copper projects in Oman to ASX listed Force Commodities.
Savannah Resources receives 50m shares – equivalent to a 4.9% interest in Force Commodities plus “preferential payment of AUD$3.5m in cash from an existing loan (announced 10 April 2014) out of cash flow generated from production” and a 1% NSR on future production in return for the Block 4 and Block 5 copper projects.
Commenting on the divestment, CEO, David Archer, explained that “The strategic review we initiated last year looked at a number of options regarding Savannah’s ongoing participation in the Projects. It concluded that an appropriately structured divestment, which allowed Savannah to retain an interest in the Projects’ long term economic success, represented the best outcome available to us. The Transaction gives Savannah a meaningful shareholding in Force as well as the potential for cash payments from any future production from the Projects”.
Mr. Archer also clarified that “With responsibility for Oman now lying with Force, Savannah is free to concentrate more of its management time, resources and capital on its priority projects in Portugal and Mozambique”.
Conclusion: The disposal of its copper projects in Oman allows Savannah Resources to concentrate on the Mina do Barroso lithium project in Portugal and on its Mutamba mineral sands project in Mozambique
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Savannah Resources
Yamana Gold (LON:AUY) 437.5p Mkt Cap £4,045m – C$152m acquisition of Wasamac project in Quebec
Yamana Gold reports that it has reached a definitive agreement for the acquisition of Monarch Gold which owns the underground Wasamac gold project, located approximately 100km from Yamana Gold’s 50%-owned Canadian Malartic mine in Quebec and the Camflo property, including a mill.
The project is located approximately 15km west of the established mining centre of Rouyn-Noranda .
Wasamac is described as hosting “five well developed ore shoots within a single, continuous shear zone with a consistent grade distribution and wide mining widths, making it amenable to simple, productive, and cost efficient underground bulk mining methods”.
Today’s announcement reports that the project “has existing proven and probable mineral reserves of 1.8 million ounces of gold at 2.56 grams per tonne. Mineral resources and proven and probable mineral reserves are supported by a Feasibility Study previously completed by Monarch Gold in 2018”.
Yamana Gold says that “The currently defined deposit is situated at shallow depths in comparison to other Abitibi mines. Current known mineralization reaches a depth of approximately 800 metres, which offers the opportunity for ramp access at low relative up-front development costs over a relatively short development time frame”.
“The Camflo property, located 15 kilometres northwest of Val-d’Or, includes the old Camflo mine, which closed in 1992, and a permitted mill. The property has not been explored since the mid-1980s and Yamana believes it has good exploration upside. Monarch has digitized historical exploration data, which Yamana intends to review, after which it will make a determination whether to commence an exploratory drill program”.
Yamana Gold will pay the equivalent of C$0.63 per Monarch Gold share comprising 0.0376 of its shares for each Monarch Gold share plus “C$0.192 in cash; and 0.2 of a share (valued at C$0.15 per Monarch share) of SpinCo, a newly-created exploration company that will hold Monarch’s remaining pipeline of development and exploration projects”.
The company explains that the C$152m acquisition price represents a “value paid of approximately $71 per ounce of mineral reserves or $44 per ounce of mineral resources as defined in Wasamac’s mineral reserve statement for the Wasamac Feasibility Study”.
Today’s announcement explains that the acquisition provides Yamana Gold with “with a significant mineral reserve and mineral resource base and excellent potential for further expansion. The acquisition adds to the Company’s footprint in the Abitibi region, which is consistent with Yamana’s strategy to build on its existing presence in established mining jurisdictions where it has deep technical, geological, and operational expertise” as well as adding to its exploration portfolio in the area,
John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486
Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – [email protected] – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver
BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore
Bloomberg OTC Composite
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Antimony