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JPMorgan Sees Divergence in S. African Gold, Platinum Stocks

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Comments of the Day


04 December 2020




Video commentary for December 3rd 2020




Eoin Treacy’s view


A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area.

Some of the topics discussed include: Platinum possibly breaking out, natural gas entering seasonal weakness, Dollar breaking downwards, long-term bases being completed in global markets which points to outperformance,




Email of the day on political polarization:


I enjoyed getting your summary daily report. I must say, though, that I disagree with your thoughts below:


Quoting Aristotle in this chapter suggests Dalio is more than familiar with Plato’s sequence of political regimes. There has been a tendency among pundits to think of Donald Trump as a tyrant. The conclusion was that his ascendency would lead a transition away from democracy and into disorderly tyranny. Persistent talk of an imminent descent in civil war in various online blogs perpetuates that misreading


More to the point, “those pundits” were positioning a point of view because they realized he was not subject to the conformity that they were not only a part of but also helped direct. They “used’ the story line that he was a tyrant when, in fact, he is none of that, rather simply arrogant, loud and not obliged to the protocols of an entrenched system-e.g. an outsider who had no fear of people’s opinions of him, therefore dangerous in their eyes. If anything, the current woke/PC movement is actively trying to redefine American values and character.


Keep up the good work!




Eoin Treacy’s view


Thank you for this email and your kind words. I completely agree with your reading of the intentions of pundits to cast the Trump administration as demagogues. However, it is also important to look at the wider top-down picture. Political polarisation is at an all time high.




Email of the day on the space race


This is an interesting if alarming piece about China and adds weight to your observations about war.


Eoin Treacy’s view


Thank you for this interesting article which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:


In the meantime, though, the distinction between Earth and space has been blurred. Geopolitics used to be Earth-bound, world war was war between continents. Now it isn’t. China is ahead on this. Clausewitz is taught in its military academies and so too is the Prussian argument for a Feldherrenhugel, the mound from which commanders can direct battles. Space is the ultimate “higher ground” from which all strands of a battle can be monitored and directed. That is why the moon is more than a sentimental prize.

A senior Chinese general was quoted in 2016 as saying “the space between the Earth and the moon will be strategically important for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. The head of the Chinese lunar mission says “if we don’t go there now, even though we are capable of it, then we will be blamed by our descendants. If others go, then they will take over.”


JPMorgan Sees Divergence in S. African Gold, Platinum Stocks


This article by Adelaide Changole for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:


Prices of platinum, palladium and other platinum group metals will be supported by demand from China and other major consumers, given an increased push for energy transition, electric vehicles, and reduced emissions. Platinum and its by-product palladium are used in vehicle pollution-control devices.


Platinum companies “are very different now from gold,” Aserkoff said. “They have different drivers from gold, the price of the metals is going to change and the stock prices will behave differently. I don’t think they should be as correlated as they used to be.”




Eoin Treacy’s view


Gold is monetary metal so it tends to attract people who are concerned about the sustainability of a fiat currency system. The other precious metals are also industrial resources. They tend to be held in their own right but they also have industrial utilities. Solar panels are a support for silver prices and catalytic converter demand has been a tailwind for palladium. Platinum has lacked a fundamental driver since the decline of diesel engines. That may now be changing with the evolution of a hydrogen fuel cell market.




Email of the day on inflation


With the growing expectation of rising inflation in 2021 what areas of the world markets would you choose to be positioned in if this proves to be the case? I note you only have a few trades on at present. Ae you likely to broaden these in the future?


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-03/five-reasons-to-worry-about-faster-u-s-inflation





Eoin Treacy’s view


Thank you for this question. Governments are going all in on reflation and they are unlikely to stop until they get the inflationary outcome their desire. When above trend inflation is policy rather than a “nice to have” is has to be a more credible option.




Eoin’s personal portfolio – trading and investment positions increased December 1st


Eoin Treacy’s view


One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.




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