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Email of the day on the Dollar and competitive currency devaluation

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Comments of the Day

30 December 2020

 

 

Video commentary for December 29th 2020

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area. 

Soime of the topics discussed include: bitcoin rips higher over Christmas, silver outperforming gold, commodities rebound, emerging Europe moving to outperformance, Dollar eases, Alibaba bounces. 

 

 

Email of the day After Brexit

The Brexit deal has made me think of David Fuller a lot in recent days. I shared several wonderful lunches with him in London at which his view on Theresa May’s handling of the negotiations was quite clear! I think he would have been delighted with the unexpectedly good outcome (for the UK and the EU). Oddly, the deal has helped me at last come to terms with David’s death. Knowing he would be happy makes me happy.

The attached article on the UKs economic prospects surprised me for its positivity, especially the massive amount the UK is predicted to pull ahead of France. Here is section:

…the annual growth rate will be an average of 4 per cent until 2025.

By 2035, UK GDP in dollars is forecast to be 23 per cent more than traditional economic rival France.

Douglas Williams, the deputy chairman of the CEBR, suggested Britain’s digital sector would flourish in the coming years.

‘People often forget that the UK’s largest economic sector is digital and creative,’ he said.

‘We have a huge competitive advantage in this tech-based sector which the pandemic has kicked forward.

‘Most of this is pretty Brexit-proof provided the UK continues to attract talented people.’

Moreover, this CEBR analysis was made before the Brexit deal was announced, so maybe the prospects are even more positive now.

The key question for us investors is which London-listed companies are best placed to capitalise on the great opportunities ahead.

And

I hope you are well and had a relaxing Christmas.

This article (attached) today in the Telegraph added some interesting facts about the UK’s trading future post-Brexit. It also seemed to cut across your own recent remarks about the future of the EU and the possibility of the Euro becoming the dominant reserve currency. The graphic was particularly revealing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/29/uk-must-keep-shifting-away-continental-europe/

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

Thank you both for these articles which may be of interest to the Collective. We had a very enjoyable Christmas and played a lot of Mahjong. The Far Niente, panettone, Colin Street Bakery fruitcake and left overs have all been polished off and we’re starting to get back onto an enjoyable blend of epicureanism and ascetism.  I’ve been thinking a lot about David too over the last few weeks. I think he would have wholly approved of Boris Johnson’s tough negotiating stance and the commitment to follow through on the Democratic will of the people.

The world is full of opportunity for any company or country willing to compete. The UK is full of people who are willing to look on the positive side of the Brexit debate; with a view to gaining global market share for their individual enterprises.

 

 

Email of the day on the Dollar and competitive currency devaluation

I hope you and your family had a wonderful Christmas!

Back to work please find the following argument which contradicts yours re the USD being the currency that (relatively) is being debased the most. If there were a potentially violent rally of the USD than all bets would be off for a while…, especially on PM’s. All the best,

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

Thank you for this email raises some important points. The Dollar has been among the strongest currencies in the world over the last five years. It has been persistently firm against most emerging and commodity related currencies and has held an upward bias against most other reserve currencies. Since the onset of the pandemic monetary and fiscal response it has trended lower.

 

 

Email of the day – on hydrogen ETFs

Hope you have a good Xmas. Could I ask, are you aware of an ETF in which I can get exposure to Hydrogen. I live in the UK, as such, I may be restricted with my choice?

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

Thank you for this question which may be of interest to the Collective. To the best of my knowledge, the sector has not gained sufficient adherents, beyond the broad renewables universe, for any firm to  launch an ETF.

Here is a link to the Chart Library folder for Hydrogen companies.

 

 

Email of the day – on India and downloading the video

Wish you, Mrs. Tracy and your lovely children a very Happy Christmas and a great holiday season.

I have always loved your optimism on India ever since we first met in Singapore nearly a decade back. Regretfully I was unable to share the same sentiment then and unable to do so now.

For instance, internet connectivity is poor even in Mumbai. At home I am at a handicap, while at office in the prime Nariman Point area we have three redundancies, and still lose out, though rarely.

The only way to enjoy your lovely “Eoin’s World View of Markets” as I like to think of your daily videos, is to download them and then listen offline. In the absence of a download icon over the past two days, the streaming media loading every now and then has been highly irritating.

I sincerely hope you will be able to restore the download facility so that we in the internet challenged parts of the world can enjoy your uninterrupted services.

Wishing you and your family fun times in the meanwhile.

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

Thank you for this email and I’m sure the Collective would welcome additional perspectives from on the ground subscribers in India. I would be particularly interested, for example, in hearing how good your Jio 4G connectivity is? How does it perform when watching videos?

 

That would offer me some insight into how the service is being consumed internationally but it is also likely to be of particular interest to anyone invested in Netflix which has taken a big bet on penetrating the Indian market. Without reliable internet access the value proposition for streaming/ecommerce/online banking/social media companies is much less compelling.

It came to my attention last week that the Subscriber’s video was being re-posted by a competing subscription service. That forced me to limit all forms of sharing for the videos until the issue was cleared up. It is also why one of the videos was posted via YouTube before the Christmas break.

For the record, FullerTreacyMoney has been producing podcasts since that was even a word. I daresay we are the longest running financial markets podcast provider anywhere. I introduced the first videos four years ago and they continue to be among the most popular features of the service.

We do not have a marketing budget. Sales are driven entirely by word of mouth. There are more lucrative business models which other newsletter providers deploy. They create sales funnels, income maximisation plans and bombard subscribers with marketing material. David and I made the decision a long time ago to avoid that kind of sales strategy for better or worse. I want to continue in the same manner for as long as possible; putting the welfare of subscribers above that of the business. I don’t have an issue with sharing the occasional video or article with someone who might be a prospective subscriber, but I will cancel the subscription of anyone who abuses the service.

 

 

Eoin’s personal portfolio: stock market trading position opened December 18th

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.

 

 

 

 

 

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